An OPEC+ panel has warned of “significant uncertainties” and the risk of a potential global oil market imbalance after April 2022, according to a confidential report seen by Reuters on Wednesday.

The panel, known as the Joint Technical Committee, sees an overhang of crude by the end of 2022 under different scenarios looking at supply and demand in the oil market, the report showed.

Under a base scenario, OECD oil stocks would stand at 96 million barrels and 125 million barrels below the 2015-2019 average for the third and fourth quarters of 2021, respectively, the report said.

“In 2022, a significant increase is seen, leading to an overhang of 181 million barrels by the end of the year,” the report added.

The base case adopts global oil demand growth assumptions and non-OPEC supply growth from OPEC‘s June monthly report, with a preliminary forecast for 2022.


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